Time for two Europes

Rome

BRITAIN'S departure from the European Union (EU) would be a disaster for the UK, and an even greater one for the EU. Brexit could have an explosive effect on an already fragmented EU, possibly leading to its unravelling.

Keeping the UK in would be a lesser evil. Whatever the outcome, the referendum will force a deep rethinking and restructuring of the EU. The UK's role would be crucial. So I hope it remains a recalcitrant member - to help fundamentally change the Union.

For Britain, the costs of exit would not be compensated by the purported advantages. A non-EU Britain would be a middling power with limited influence. Over the medium term, its permanent seat on the UN (United Nations) security council would become untenable, especially if Scotland seceded. Britain is crucial for a credible European defence and security policy (and keeping an eye on French exceptionalism). Outside the EU, as US President Barack Obama has pointed out, its value would…