Why Trump could be the 'spoiler' of 2016

THE 2016 US election season kicks off this month with the final Republican and Democratic presidential debates in advance of early February's Iowa caucus. While Hillary Clinton is very likely to become the Democratic nominee, the Republican race's outcome is much more uncertain.

Since last summer, Donald Trump has led a majority of national polls of Republican identifiers, and now has a plausible chance of becoming the party's nominee. However, even if he does not win the Republican crown, the fact that he has created so much momentum could easily encourage him to run for the presidency as a third-party candidate in a way that may have a significant bearing upon the final result in November.

Although Mr Trump signed a "pledge" to the Republicans last September that he will not run as an independent, there are significant doubts whether this is legally binding. Thus, should Mr Trump not win the Republican nomination and decide that it is in his interest to continue a campaign, he would probably not hesitate to do so given that it could allow him to play the role of "kingmaker" in the contest.