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Speculative Trump rally may be close to its peak

Published Sun, Mar 5, 2017 · 09:50 PM
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STOCKS hit new records again last week and the Dow Jones Industrial Average smashed through the 21,000 level about a month after breaking through 20,000 amid renewed confidence in the US government and central bank.

The Dow could well make a run at 22,000 this week, if jobs data comes in strong. Until a drop on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its longest streak of gains since 1987. That year, of course, the stock market famously crashed after rocketing higher for the first half of the year. Now, as then, stocks seem to be defying gravity, rising in the face of doubts over France's future in the euro zone and the likelihood of higher interest rates. It seems likely that there will be a market shock before the year is out and some brokerages see the shock coming sooner rather than later.

The wind beneath the market's wings last week was a surprisingly conciliatory address to the two houses of the US legislature from President Donald Trump. It was mostly hot air, of course, but in a speculative market, that is enough. The president did little to fill out the broad brushstrokes of economic and tax policy that have caused the speculative run up in stocks since his election. By striking a less pugnacious tone, however, Mr Trump inspired renewed hope that his administration could get congressional support for an infrastructure bill and tax cuts.

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