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Flash estimates: just a numbers game?

Swings between projected and actual figures have led some to question if advance sequential growth numbers are still relevant

Published Sun, Apr 6, 2014 · 10:00 PM
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WHEN the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) first introduced quarter-on-quarter advance GDP estimates in Q2 2000, it aimed to provide more timely economic data to the public and business community.

By all measures, these flash estimates have been a boon for investors and businesses alike, giving an early and largely accurate indication of sequential GDP growth each quarter - until last year.

In 2013, three out of four advance GDP estimates (Q1, Q3, and Q4) were off the mark in directional terms - the economy was projected to contract, when it actually expanded quarter-on-quarter.

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