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Emerging market bulls should beware

A London-based strategist, one of few to forecast the slump in emerging markets that began in 2011, sees no sign of a turnaround.

Hong Kong

IF JOHN-PAUL Smith is right, some of the world's biggest investors are setting themselves up for a major disappointment.

The London-based strategist, one of few to anticipate the slump in emerging markets that began in 2011, sees no sign of a turnaround and says the current environment resembles that of the late 1990s, when crises in South-east Asia and Russia roiled the entire asset class.

His stance clashes with bullish pronouncements from money managers including BlackRock Inc, Franklin Templeton and Research Affiliates LLC - an adviser to Pacific Investment Management Co that predicts developing-nation assets could become the next "trade of a decade".

While Mr Smith lacks BlackRock's...

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