THE business of economic forecasting and investment strategy just got more difficult.
With the ubiquity of news and market and economic indicators, every investor feels empowered with the knowledge to forecast economic growth and asset return profiles. That confidence also arises from the oft-mentioned conviction that stock markets anticipate the economy with a six to nine-month lead time.
The 2022 stock market sell-off prompted investors and analysts to ring the dreaded “recession bell” in a concerted manner. According to a Google Trends search, the term “recession” spiked in June 2022 following an S&P 500 sell-off that began from the start of last year.
A year on, reality got in the way....
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