PERHAPS the most famous trading experiment ever conducted was when commodities investor Richard Dennis bet his partner William Eckhardt in 1983 that he could train a group of amateurs – dubbed “the Turtles” – to be successful futures traders. The bet was to be settled by giving the Turtles real money to trade. In the end, the Turtles compiled an impressive record, handing Dennis the win.
Although the experiment settled the issue in popular imagination, it lacked the transparency, controls and statistical rigour demanded by academics. So ever since, researchers have strived to understand trading success through various studies – efforts that have not escaped the notice of firms that are...
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