Shell sees oil sales volume, margins holding up in first quarter

[LONDON] Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it doesn't expect the coronavirus to have a significant effect on overall demand for its oil products in the first quarter.

While the company warned that the pandemic was creating major uncertainties around oil prices and boosting volatility, it experienced a "relatively minor" impact in the first two months of the year and expects sales volumes and margins for the quarter to be relatively unscathed for the quarter.

"Marketing margins in the first quarter are expected to remain strong, as the impact on demand from COVID-19 is not expected to be significant at the Shell group level," the company said in a statement.

Oil-products sales volumes are seen at 6 million to 7 million barrels a day for the period, compared with 6.5 million barrels a day reported a year earlier. First-quarter upstream oil and gas production is estimated at 2.65 million to 2.72 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, with margins affected by the "weak environment," Shell said.

Major oil companies have already taken big steps to adapt to the massive economic impact of the deadly pandemic. Shell cancelled the next tranche of its share buyback program, cut capital expenditure and pulled out of a liquefied natural gas project. Even that may not be enough to preserve the company's dividend as oil prices plunge, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc.

Following changes in oil-price assumptions for 2020, Shell expects post-tax impairment charges of US$400 million to US$800 million for the quarter. The company has a new US$12 billion revolving credit-line commitment, and sees available liquidity rising to more than US$40 billion from US$30 billion.

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Trading and optimization in integrated gas is expected to be in line with the fourth quarter of 2019, Shell said. Last year was one of the strongest in recent memory for trading of the fuel. While Shell doesn't provide details on how much money that division makes, it can provide a silver lining when economic conditions are weak.

BLOOMBERG