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Treading carefully amid uncertainties in the year ahead

Published Wed, Jan 22, 2020 · 09:50 PM
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DESPITE contributing two-thirds of total global growth as the world's main growth engine, Asia is starting to sputter due to the impact of major economic, political and social developments unfolding across the region. Asian countries are grappling with a myriad of factors, including economic disruption, geopolitical risk and even social change, that are driving a cycle of uncertainty.

Ask any C-suite executive what will keep him or her up at night in 2020, and the reply will likely be uncertainty arising from factors such as growing indications of trade protectionism like the US-China trade war and Brexit. Even if both superpowers deliver the recently negotiated "Phase One" deal signed and sealed, or even if the United Kingdom and Brussels agree on a win-win proposition, significant damage has been done.

In spite of the recent US-China deal, nearly two-thirds of Chinese goods imported by the US will be subject to an average tariff of 19.3 per cent, versus just 3 per cent previously. With negotiations starting only on March 29, the picture for Brexit is even murkier. The fallout from these two world-changing developments, and from global economic decline, slowing domestic consumption and foreign investment, will ripple through Chinese companies, and the hordes of Asian firms comprising their massive supply chains.

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