Indonesia's Covid-19 situation underscores its dependence on vaccine, says Control Risks

Singapore

EVEN as large-scale social restrictions in Indonesia's capital, Jakarta, were recently tightened, this is unlikely to be effective in the country's fight against the Covid-19 pandemic.

"Without co-operation by surrounding cities that constitute the Greater Jakarta conurbation, Jakarta's Governor Anies Baswedan's move is unlikely to significantly contain the infection trend within the capital region's 10 million population," said Achmad Sukarsono, senior analyst and lead analyst for Indonesia at Control Risks.

"Given that there is usually no physical border separating Jakarta from the rest of the conurbation, other leaders now fear that Jakarta residents seeking respite will pack into suburban leisure centres."

Dr Anies's decision to impose a second lockdown, albeit a less restrictive one, faces criticism from ministers and coalition politicians for abruptly introducing restrictions without considering the huge responsibility Jakarta carries in terms of the national economy.

"For businesses in the capital, the coming weeks will hurt as the restrictions are still the most restrictive in Indonesia and come at a time when the economy is already on its knees," said Mr Sukarsono.

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This is likely to discourage other regional leaders, especially those attached to the ruling coalition, to follow his example. These leaders have been backing President Joko Widodo's "new normal" campaign, which seeks, first and foremost, for the country to evade a looming recession by opposing to any type of strict lockdown.

Another major concern is that upcoming local elections might worsen infection rates. Indonesia reported the biggest daily rise in Covid-19 cases on Wednesday: 4,465 new cases, taking the total number of infections to 257,388. This is the sixth time this month the country has beaten its own record.

The elections - for 224 district chiefs, 37 mayors and nine governors - have already been postponed once. Pushing them to 2021 or lumping them with the next cycle in 2022 would upset carefully tailored election arrangements. A delay beyond December would create a political headache due to the "cut-throat" competition for local positions, and the failure to replace 270 leaders whose terms have expired could create instability across several areas, noted Mr Sukarsono.

But public pressure is mounting on President Joko to change his mind and delay again. The whole process will involve more than 100 million voters across the country, but only 29 of the 309 pertinent regions currently have negligible infection rates.

Official campaigns, which commence on Sept 26, are very likely to become significant spreading events. Penalties for candidates that fail to comply with health protocols have so far been weak and at least 60 candidates were confirmed to be Covid-19-positive but rallied nonetheless, said Mr Sukarsono.

All of which means a vaccine might be Indonesia's only solution to controlling the pandemic, said Mr Sukarsono.

"President Joko envisages that the national government, which is co-operating with Chinese pharmaceutical producer Sinovac, will as soon as February 2021 provide an effective vaccine for Indonesia's 250 million residents.

"However, health experts doubt this timescale will be met. Any delay will push back Jakarta's second de-escalation of restrictions, especially as the capital's already overburdened healthcare system becomes increasingly overwhelmed."