Most countries in APAC looking at 2022, 2023 before herd immunity can be achieved: report

WITH exceptions such as Singapore, most countries in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will be looking at 2022 and even 2023 before herd immunity is achieved, according to Steven Cochrane, chief APAC economist at Moody's Analytics.

On the one hand, Asian countries appeared to have been cautious in their approach to acquiring vaccines until it was clear which would be approved and available. On the other hand, given that much of Asia had the advantage of having controlled the spread of Covid-19, many countries felt it less imperative to be the first or fastest with a vaccine, noted Mr Cochrane.

But, he noted, the need to vaccinate and create herd immunity is critical to the reopening of international borders and accommodating the uninterrupted flow of business travellers.

Within the Asia-Pacific, China was the first to begin vaccinating high-priority people according to the non-profit scientific publication Our World in Data. By Feb 9, which is the latest observation for China in this data set, the vaccination rate had climbed only to 2.8 per cent. Press reports put China's rate at about 3.5 per cent as at the end of February.

Singapore started later, on Jan 11, but by Feb 18 the rate had climbed to 6.2 per cent, according to Our World. This is an increase of over six percentage points in about five weeks.

Elsewhere in Asia, Sri Lanka is at 2.4 per cent, Nepal at 1.4 per cent, and India and Indonesia at about 1 per cent. All others in the region have just begun vaccinating over the past two weeks.

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For countries where containment of Covid-19 has been less successful, including Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, a rapid roll-out is essential to opening their economies and bringing the service industries back to life while protecting public health, said Mr Cochrane in his analysis, "Consequences of Vaccination Delays in APAC".

Based on data from Our World, a few small countries lead in terms of the number of vaccinations per capita. These leaders include Gibraltar at 108 per cent, Israel at 95 per cent, and Seychelles at 81 per cent.

The UK has vaccinated 31 per cent of its population, followed by the US at 23 per cent. This is measured as total number of doses administered per capita, so the figures can exceed 100 per cent if two doses are required.