Thailand's 2020 growth could be nearly flat due to virus, says Citi

THAILAND'S growth could be virtually flat in 2020 due to the Covid-19 outbreak's impact on tourism, said Citi economist Nalin Chutchotitham in a March 1 note. She revised her full-year estimate to 0.2 per cent, down from 2.2 per cent previously.

This is based on new estimates of tourist arrivals falling 15.4 per cent year on year, and revenues falling more than 18 per cent.

The assumption is that China's ban on outbound group tours will remain through at least the second quarter of 2020, erasing 60 to 70 per cent of Thailand's arrivals from China.