OPINION

10 potential risks to the global economy in 2020

THE traditional January game of economic forecasting for the year ahead hardly seems worth playing when the predictions have been the same for a decade. In 2020, it is even more likely than it has been every year since the financial crisis that the global economy will continue growing, interest...

THE BOTTOM LINE

Dose of economic, social reality for Johnson after UK election win

WARS end when the belligerents give up fighting. The surest way for this to happen, and sometimes the least destructive, is through a decisive battle that leads to unconditional surrender. Boris Johnson's overwhelming victory in the United Kingdom's general election this month was such a battle...

The monetarist era is over

A MOOD of foreboding dominated this month's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, DC. But fear of a global recession was not the real cause.

Are Europe's prospects brighter than they appear?

IN THE year since US President Donald Trump escalated America's trade war with China, policymakers and financial markets have been obsessed with the dangers to both countries' economies. Yet the real threat the conflict poses to the global economy lies elsewhere.

Will Boris Johnson's political coup succeed?

THE long-running tragicomedy of the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union is, at long last, approaching its climax. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's manoeuvre to suspend the UK Parliament for almost the entire period leading up to the Brexit deadline of Oct 31 was described by...

Why a 'no deal' Brexit remains very unlikely

NOW that Boris Johnson has achieved his lifetime ambition to become the United Kingdom's prime minister, the tragicomedy of Brexit is approaching its climax. While the rest of the European Union has viewed this with barely disguised horror, there is good news and bad news in Mr Johnson's...

Economic expansions don't really die of old age

THE US economy has entered its 11th year of uninterrupted expansion, breaking the previous record for the longest period of growth in American history without a recession. But far from celebrating, many economists conclude from this unprecedented performance that a recession is now overdue, if...

No-deal Brexit is 'highly improbable'

AFTER British Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation announcement, several of the candidates to succeed her have proclaimed their desire for a "no-deal Brexit". In response, European leaders are ramping up preparations for a total rupture with the United Kingdom, financial analysts are...

COMMENTARY

Goldilocks growth

WITH Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a new record this month, it seems a lifetime since the despondency in financial markets late last year. Fears of recession have been refuted, and investors who felt in early January that markets were just going through...

COMMENTARY

How EU leaders can prevent a no-deal Brexit

HAS British Prime Minister Theresa May outmanoeuvred all her opponents? By defeating Parliament's effort to rule out a disorderly "no-deal" rupture between the European Union and its second-largest trading partner, Mrs May has redoubled pressure on EU leaders to accept her demands...