Economic expansions don't really die of old age

THE US economy has entered its 11th year of uninterrupted expansion, breaking the previous record for the longest period of growth in American history without a recession. But far from celebrating, many economists conclude from this unprecedented performance that a recession is now overdue, if...

No-deal Brexit is 'highly improbable'

AFTER British Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation announcement, several of the candidates to succeed her have proclaimed their desire for a "no-deal Brexit". In response, European leaders are ramping up preparations for a total rupture with the United Kingdom, financial analysts are...

COMMENTARY

Goldilocks growth

WITH Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a new record this month, it seems a lifetime since the despondency in financial markets late last year. Fears of recession have been refuted, and investors who felt in early January that markets were just going through...

COMMENTARY

How EU leaders can prevent a no-deal Brexit

HAS British Prime Minister Theresa May outmanoeuvred all her opponents? By defeating Parliament's effort to rule out a disorderly "no-deal" rupture between the European Union and its second-largest trading partner, Mrs May has redoubled pressure on EU leaders to accept her demands...

Financial crystal ball reveals no answers

IF THERE is one useful conclusion that economists and investors can draw from the crazy year that has just ended - indeed, from the whole crazy decade since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 - it is this: As they say in Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything."...

Deal or no deal: Is cancelling Brexit now inevitable?

IN TIMES of political turmoil, events can move from impossible to inevitable without even passing through improbable. In early 2016, the idea of Britain leaving the European Union seemed almost as absurd as the next American president being the six-time bankrupt and serial sex pest Donald Trump...

Why a US-China tariff ceasefire is coming soon

THE meeting between US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires this week is being viewed as a make-or-break moment for the world economy and financial markets. But even if no agreement is reached at the summit, there are at least four...

May could back fresh Brexit referendum

AS the Brexit negotiations enter their endgame, a stalemate has become the most likely outcome. This is good news. It does not mean Britain will "crash out" of the European Union with no agreement: deals in the European Union tend to be struck at the last possible moment. But the...

COMMENTARY

Why the US will lose this trade war with China

THE United States cannot win its tariff war with China, regardless of what President Donald Trump says or does in the coming months.

COMMENTARY

Trump's victorious retreats

WILL Donald Trump back down in his trade war with China, or will he win it? The answer is probably both. Mr Trump's characteristic sequence of blood-curdling threats - "fire and fury", "squeeze Iran's exports to zero", "tariffs on everything Chinese",...

Britain lurches from Brexit to Breferendum

IF SOMETHING is impossible, it does not happen. If a country votes to make two plus two equal five, this "democratic decision" will eventually be overridden by the rules of arithmetic, no matter how large the majority or how loudly "the people have spoken"....

COMMENTARY

The perils of using nationalism to attack foreign influence

NATIONALISM versus globalism, not populism versus elitism, appears to be this decade's defining political conflict. Almost wherever we look - at the United States or Italy or Germany or Britain, not to mention China, Russia and India - an upsurge of national feeling has become the main...