The Business Times

Claudia Sahm

By concentrating on the issues facing small, young businesses – as opposed to large, well-established corporations with a lot of lobbyists – the incoming administration could foster innovation and support business formation.

Economic advice for Trump and Powell: First, do no harm 

The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years, and the main goal for the president-elect and the chair...

US job gains for the past 12 months ending in March showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in the largest downward revision since 2009.

The jobs numbers went down, but trust in them shouldn’t

When government agencies revise their data, as the US’ Bureau of Labor Statistics did last month, it usually means they have more...

The US hiring rate is now back down to its 2014 levels, when the unemployment rate was 6 per cent.

My recession rule was meant to be broken

The Sahm rule indicates that the US is in the midst of a downturn, but it’s not quite there yet

Shoppers at Macy's store in Herald Square, New York, in December. The early readings on US consumers' holiday spending are encouraging.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Labour will bolster the US economy in 2024

The jobs market is the most important cushion against any policy mistakes the Federal Reserve might make

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 24: A Costumer visits the store on early morning Black Friday Sales at Macy's herald square on November 24, 2023 in New York City. The National Retail Federation projects that an estimated 182 million are planning to shop in-store and online through the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Kena Betancur/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by KENA BETANCUR / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
THE BOTTOM LINE

Economists may have been flying blind all along

Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions based on flawed...

A hiring sign outside an In-N-Out restaurant in Mill Valley, California. The US unemployment rate inched up to an almost two-year high of 3.9 per cent in October, from 3.8 per cent.

Why my recession rule could go wrong this time

The highly accurate Sahm rule uses the unemployment rate to detect the start of an economic downturn. But like many indicators during...

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