Claudia Sahm

The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years, and the main goal for the president-elect and the chair of the Federal Reserve should be to keep it that way

When government agencies revise their data, as the US’ Bureau of Labor Statistics did last month, it usually means they have more reliable information

The Sahm rule indicates that the US is in the midst of a downturn, but it’s not quite there yet

The jobs market is the most important cushion against any policy mistakes the Federal Reserve might make

Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions based on flawed data

The highly accurate Sahm rule uses the unemployment rate to detect the start of an economic downturn. But like many indicators during the pandemic era, it’s possible it could ‘break’.