Claudia Sahm
Economic advice for Trump and Powell: First, do no harm
The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years, and the main goal for the president-elect and the chair of the Federal Reserve should be to keep it that way
The jobs numbers went down, but trust in them shouldn’t
When government agencies revise their data, as the US’ Bureau of Labor Statistics did last month, it usually means they have more reliable information
My recession rule was meant to be broken
The Sahm rule indicates that the US is in the midst of a downturn, but it’s not quite there yet
Labour will bolster the US economy in 2024
The jobs market is the most important cushion against any policy mistakes the Federal Reserve might make
Economists may have been flying blind all along
Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions based on flawed data
Why my recession rule could go wrong this time
The highly accurate Sahm rule uses the unemployment rate to detect the start of an economic downturn. But like many indicators during the pandemic era, it’s possible it could ‘break’.
