Daniel Gros

Given that the US and the EU have the world’s most robust and important economic relationship, a transatlantic trade war would be very costly for both sides.

Europe’s best tools for countering Trump

The bloc is poorly positioned for a tit-for-tat tariff war with the US, but a more targeted strategy could work

The pattern of under-consumption in China will not be easy to break, as it would demand a wholesale transformation of the economy's structure.
PERSPECTIVE

The major economies’ prospects in 2026

The forces shaping the performance of China, Europe and the US are largely immune to policy

Stablecoins operating on newer blockchains – such as Tether (USDT), issued on the Tron network – are optimised for speed and throughput.

Who’s afraid of stablecoins?

Ignore the hype – retailers and wholesalers cannot rely on this digital currency

A screen showing the meeting between US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in South Korea, outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct 30. China is not the rare-earth juggernaut it might seem to be.
THE BROAD VIEW

China’s rare-earth own goal

It is actually China that depends on the US (and others) for higher value-added rare-earth compounds

According to one US survey, community opposition causes 14-month delays, on average, for wind projects.
THE BROAD VIEW

Windmill wars

The best way to overcome opposition from local communities is to offer them financial compensation

Since May, the US has collected tariffs of just 9 to 10%, on average, from its trading partners, owing partly to the fact that about half of all US imports still enter duty-free.

Global trade is winning Trump’s war on it

The average effective tariff rate that the US has applied remains much lower than what the American president’s pronouncements would suggest

Former Italian prime minister and economist Mario Draghi recommended last year that the EU increase annual investment by more than 800 billion euros. His report has now become the intellectual foundation for an ambitious strategy to revitalise growth in Europe.

Europe’s flawed investment strategy

The focus should be on strengthening its innovation ecosystem, rather than simply investing more

Workers in Austria. While manufacturing declined in both the EU and US, Europe's exports had increased to give new employment opportunities to workers.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Why Americans and Europeans disagree about globalisation

Diverging views on trade are due to differences in institutions, social resilience and political narratives

If China limits exports of low-value rare-earth metals, it risks the supply of the rare-earth compounds that its manufacturing sector needs.
THE BROAD VIEW

The mirage of geoeconomics

The use of economic tools, from tariffs to export licensing, to advance geopolitical goals is likely to prove ineffective – or even...

Even if America’s current-account balance improves temporarily, the overall current-account deficit is likely to persist, as will the surpluses of other major economies, such as China, the EU and Japan.
THE BROAD VIEW

The indirect impact of Trump’s tariff war

A major reshuffling of bilateral trade balances is in the offing