Jeffrey Frankel

PROFESSOR OF CAPITAL FORMATION AND GROWTH AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY

Signage warning of closures due to the US government shutdown in front of the National Gallery of Art. In the US, public debt now stands at 99% of GDP.

What will the US debt reckoning look like?

There are six possible scenarios, with crisis-induced austerity the most likely outcome

Voter behaviour is often driven by culture and ideology. Voters might understand that Donald Trump is going to reduce or eliminate government benefits that improve their lives, but support him anyway, because they believe in small government and self-reliance as matters of principle.

Are Maga voters rational?

Voter behaviour is often driven by culture and ideology, to the extent of choosing candidates who will not be good for them economically

By enabling the resurgence of diseases that have been brought under control, and hampering progress in tackling others, Trump is indirectly jeopardising Americans’ health.

Make America sick again

The Maga movement’s apparent commitment to reversing progress in public health is astounding

American President Donald Trump (left) has no doubt that he understands monetary policy better than Fed policymakers – “certainly much better” than chair Jerome Powell.

Are Trump’s criticisms of Fed policy based on economic conditions?

Uncovering the ‘logic’ behind the US president’s complaints of the central bank’s monetary stance

For some 80 years, the United States spent more on humanitarian assistance, economic development programmes, and other types of foreign aid than any other government.
PERSPECTIVE

Foreign aid looks good now that it’s gone

The assistance programmes that the Trump administration has frantically slashed and defunded since January were often life-saving, high-return projects

With Trump's trade tariffs clouding economic forecasts, indicators are unable to help us navigate the dense fog.

How to forecast a recession

Imagine you are sailing a ship through dense fog, looking out for land. Your lookout spots species of birds typically found offshore. It now seems likely that you are approaching land, but it is impos...

An effort to devalue the US dollar could well lead to the greenback’s demise as the dominant global currency.

Is Trump engineering the decline and fall of the US dollar?

There are fundamental flaws in the US administration’s vision for weakening the greenback

As Trump touts his non-achievements, the costs to the US pile up, to say nothing of the potentially catastrophic costs of strategic failures like the incipient rupture with Europe.

Trump’s imaginary victories

To call the US president a ‘transactional’ leader is to ignore his utter lack of strategic thinking

If the Trump administration were to retaliate against the Brics with 100 per cent tariffs, the move could backfire, prompting central banks to turn to the renminbi, smaller currencies or even gold for their international reserves.

Can Trump’s tariff threats save US dollar hegemony?

The US president-elect’s reckless rhetoric could undermine his stated objectives

Under the next Trump (left) administration, the new Department of Government Efficiency – to be headed by Elon Musk (right) and Vivek Ramaswamy – will supposedly cut waste, fraud and abuse from the federal budget.
PERSPECTIVE

Elon Musk’s US$2 trillion fiscal fantasy

Between Trump’s planned tax cuts and Musk’s absurd estimate of how much federal spending can be reduced, the smart money says they have no idea what they are doing