Leon Hadar

Cuba is more economically fragile than at any point since 1993, with nationwide blackouts now routine.

Will Washington’s Cuba campaign succeed this time?

There’s a strong case for ousting President Miguel Diaz-Canel, but any attempt could risk real complications

Iranian mines in the strait have throttled the world’s most important energy artery and driven US inflation to its highest level in years.
THE BOTTOM LINE

A narrow door out of the Hormuz war

The US-Iran deal’s principal virtue is that it lets each side claim enough to sell at home

In response to India's strained petroleum reserves, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked Indians to drive less, work from home when possible, and ease off on gold purchases.

India on Iran war: the costs of sitting still

New Delhi’s calculated neutrality has ignited a debate over the limits of its foreign policy

On paper, Trump (left) and Xi converged: The US readout says “both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and Hormuz “must remain open”.

A choreographed detente: Reading the Trump-Xi summit

Xi’s move to host Russia so soon after Washington’s visit suggests Beijing plans to maintain its full portfolio of relationships

Two months in, Sanae Takaichi’s government is performing a delicate balancing act, and it is not yet clear that the wire will hold.

Tokyo on a tightrope: Japan’s impossible choices in the Iran war

Ambiguity is not a posture one can hold indefinitely

Importers across the US are watching closely; if the ruling is upheld and broadened, the universe of refund claims could be enormous.
THE BOTTOM LINE

When US trade court says no: The limits of presidential tariff authority

The Trump administration has now lost its two boldest legal theories for unilateral, across-the-board tariffs

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a bilateral meeting at the Apec summit in Busan on Oct 30, 2025.

US-China summit: managing a rivalry, not resolving it

Some of the most useful moves Trump and Xi can make are to lower the temperature and narrow the agenda

Having cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is poised to succeed Jerome Powell after May 15.
THINKING ALOUD

Kevin Warsh’s Fed: Reform agenda or reputational risk?

His early actions would show if he is a disciplined reformer or a politically convenient appointment

The UAE today is not a pure petrostate. Thus, while high oil prices will boost the country's oil revenue, they also hurt the global economy that drives the rest of the Emirati portfolio.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Why the United Arab Emirates walked away from Opec

The economic logic of the decision is just as important as the political one

US President Donald Trump has oscillated between declaring total victory and threatening to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age”.

The art of no deal: Why the US-Iran stalemate may be structural

Both sides say they want an agreement, and neither is creating the conditions for one