Predicting random shocks

DESPITE nearly 100 years of development in econometrics, the treatment of random shocks remains quite naïve. Economists overuse normal distribution, the classic bell curve, to model the influence of variables, filtering out shocks. The logic is that most shocks are small. Larger shocks are less...


Payout to government raises questions about RBI's independence

IT has been a mixed few months since the Indian government introduced its first budget after taking on a second term in office. The economy has been losing growth momentum since the last quarter of 2018.


Grim political arithmetic for Johnson as UK's PM

THE British prime minister has changed, but the grim internal and external political arithmetic remains the same. Boris Johnson entered 10 Downing Street on Wednesday at the helm of a weak, uncertain government facing very similar constraints to those that dogged Theresa May, his luckless...

Tories can recapture their reputation for rationality by delivering a Brexit deal

IN BRITAIN'S zig-zag course to leave the European Union, two things are clear, in the wake of the European elections and Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to resign. She steps down from the Conservative party's helm on June 7, ushering in a contest - 13 candidates so far are standing - to...