Trump may yet surprise detractors come Nov 3

DONALD Trump has, on some readings, altered the shape of American politics by taking the centre of gravity further rightwards. It's not clear what "left" means in the US - and this could help the president's campaign. The US has always liked to believe it was centrist, with two main presidential...

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It's too early to write off Trump

DONALD Trump's rumbustious presidency has been more or less the mix of confusion, contradiction, banality and confrontation I predicted four years ago, in a July 2016 report, The Political Economy Of Donald Trump. The economic buoyancy accompanying his journey into the White House, which...

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Predicting random shocks

DESPITE nearly 100 years of development in econometrics, the treatment of random shocks remains quite naïve. Economists overuse normal distribution, the classic bell curve, to model the influence of variables, filtering out shocks. The logic is that most shocks are small. Larger shocks are less...