The Business Times

Mike Dolan

THE WRITER IS A COLUMNIST FOR REUTERS

There is a tendency – but a slowing one – to lean on an AI-led capex spending as a reason for optimism about 2026.
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Market calls for 2026 already laced with ‘Buy, but...’

The conviction about the economic picture seems weaker than usual

There is no sign that we should expect a major twist in the labour picture when official jobs data is finally released.
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Case for Fed pause mounts

Unless there is a major surprise in the delayed data about to be released, the case for the third interest rate cut...

In an extraordinary intervention, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly prodded the Bank of Japan to keep raising interest rates.

Bessent shows US will baulk at any dollar rebound

Engineering a tacit devaluation in a world of free-floating exchange rates is not easy, but undermining Fed independence and pressuring it to...

Prices are about 20 per cent higher on average for the American household than before the pandemic.

US cementing higher inflation regime

With most of the Fed’s top brass now focused on the labour market, it appears that many policymakers are not overly concerned...

Overall GDP growth and broad stock indexes are being flattered by the torrent of investment into AI and its infrastructure – overshadowing what's really going on Main Street, says the US' NFIB.
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The ‘phoney trade war’ may be ending

The idea that the trade shock has happened and is now bedding down as a given may be wide of the mark

BlackRock’s credit team insists some of the jolts in credit are “idiosyncratic”, and that the peak in recent default activity is likely behind us; it remains positive on corporate credit as interest rates fall and growth continues.

‘Juiced out’ bonds pushing money elsewhere?

Core inflation for the G7 economies as a whole is settling at 3 per cent. A higher inflation world makes bonds more...

On average, the 27 EU members’ ageing-related costs will rise by just over 1% of gross domestic product over the next 45 years, a Breugel report shows.
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Europe’s ageing burden far less than in the US or China

The most remarkable takeaway in a new Bruegel report is how relatively contained Europe’s fiscal burden appears in aggregate

US payroll growth has softened considerably, to an average of only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months through August, compared with 82,000 during the same period in 2024.
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How to explain 4% growth and no jobs

The answer may lie in artificial intelligence, but proving that will be a challenge

If political bias in official data and forecasting were to emerge, one might expect to see firmer job creation and softer inflation read-outs. But any weakness in the real economy would become evident eventually.

Trump’s data war risks creating false calm

These public attacks could cause economic data, research and forecasts to become more pro-government or lead to self-censorship

White House adviser Stephen Miran's nomination for a Fed board seat is reheating a debate about the central bank's structure, independence and role.

Fed structure may be in flux, not just rates

The appointment of Stephen Miran indicates that a wider Trump worldview is being injected into the Fed

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