The Business Times

Rob Curran

emailbtnews@sph.com.sg
Jerome Powell, whose last meeting as Fed chair comes at the end of April, sounded weary as he delineated the shocks that he has steered the US central bank through.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Fed will wait out war, monitor oil shock impact before acting on interest rates

The US central bank hinted that it may not cut rates until the fog from the Iran war has cleared

Oil has been hovering around US$100 a barrel after surging 35% in a week following the Feb 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Stuck between inflationary and deflationary forces, Fed almost certain to keep rates unchanged

Officials warn any rate-cut plans will be shelved until the aftershocks of the Iran war become clear

The strength of the US dollar and the weakness of the Treasury market on the day Kevin Warsh’s nomination was announced suggest that markets anticipate him to continue holding the current Fed chair's line on interest rates.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Disappointment for some, relief for others as markets ponder Warsh’s nomination as next Fed chief

In some quarters, he is seen as a ‘credible choice’, who may hold his own against President Trump’s demand for rate cuts

Fed chair Jerome Powell gestures during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Powell defends independence of Federal Reserve

It will maintain trust in central banks that monetary policy will not be abused for short-term gains that might win elections

Fed chair Jerome Powell has earned a reputation as an unlikely champion of the old order's resistance to President Donald Trump's expansion of his presidential powers.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Fed’s first meeting of 2026 likely to be dominated by threats to central bank’s independence

The benchmark rate is likely to stay put at between 3.5 and 3.75%

By most estimates, investment in AI infrastructure accounts for the vast majority of US economic growth, masking slowdowns in consumer spending and services-sector activity.
OUTLOOK 2026

The AI bubble will surely pop sometime, but it’s an irrational exercise to predict exactly when

Even US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has confessed that economic trends and the impact of AI are confusing him

Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who will step down in May next year after overseeing three more meetings, confirmed that the Fed was leaning towards a pause.
NEWS ANALYSIS

More dissenters could signal increased resistance to future Fed rate cuts

Investors should be positioned for the Fed to continue easing at least once more in 2026, say analysts

Traders work on the floor of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, Sept. 29, 2025. Traders are awaiting key labor-market data this week that could provide clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Fed likely to trim rates again this week, but it could be a ‘hawkish’ cut

Futures markets are pricing in a near certainty that it will cut rates by another quarter of a percentage point, bringing them down...

The “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks are still trading at absurd valuations, just like the dotcom players in the late-1990s.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Amid AI frenzy, concerns mount over sustainability of equity rally as valuations continue to soar

The bulls say the AI boom is unlike the dotcom boom, in that the main players this time are extremely profitable giants...

Many Wall Street economists are raising their growth forecasts in 2026, while Fed chief Powell's impression of the US economy remains rosy.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Powell’s warning to investors and lenders: The Fed won’t spoil the markets any longer

With rates in the 3 to 4% range, monetary policy is no longer restrictive

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