Thomas Lam

RESEARCH FELLOW OF THE SIM KEE BOON INSTITUTE FOR FINANCIAL ECONOMICS AT SINGAPORE MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY

Selected financial indicators that feed into the writers' weekly model suggest that the near-term odds of a prospective recession have risen to above-average levels.

Assessing the odds of a US recession

While America is currently not in an economic downturn, the near-term odds of one has edged up, according to the writers’ prediction models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

In reaction to Jerome Powell's speech on Aug 26, US stocks saw sharp falls, and analysts reckon more downsides will persist.

Is Fed policy in the eye of the beholder?

While the US Federal Reserve remains vigilant on inflation, it will likely continue its tightening cycle with caution, with an eye on market expectations about future policy actions and financial cond...