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JPMorgan sees second-quarter slowdown in investment banking
[LONDON] Investment banking revenues in the second quarter for eight of the top banks could fall 15 per cent from the previous quarter, as income from rates trading tumbles, JPMorgan analysts said on Tuesday.
Trading revenue from the world's biggest banks showed signs of recovery in the first quarter as market volatility boosted dealing room profits after years of attrition.
However, after a normal April, May is proving to be relatively weak for revenue from fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) that could continue into June and see revenues in that division slump 25 per cent, JPMorgan analysts predict. "We are witnessing a slowdown in investment banking revenues in the second quarter 2015, potentially more than normal seasonality, driven by weakness in rates following a strong first quarter performance" the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
The first quarter is typically the strongest period of the year for investment bank income. In the second quarter, equities divisions, though are outperforming normal seasonal trends and are expected to show only an 8 per cent decline quarter-on-quarter, similar to advisory and underwriting divisions.
UBS is JPMorgan's top pick followed by Deutsche Bank.