US$300b Russia cash pile can roil money markets, says Credit Suisse strategist

[ZURICH] Russia still has about US$300 billion of foreign currency held offshore - enough to disrupt money markets if it's frozen by sanctions or moved suddenly to avoid them.

That's according to Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, who parsed data from the Bank of Russia and financial markets to calculate the figure. "When flows change, spreads can gap," Pozsar wrote in a report Thursday.

"If things escalate, it's hard not to see a direct impact on FX swaps and US dollar Libor fixings given Russia's vast financial surpluses and where those surpluses are deployed."

Russia's central bank and private sector have almost US$1 trillion of liquid wealth, with a much larger share of this held in US dollars than most people realize, even after the country sold all its Treasuries holdings in 2018, Pozsar wrote.

He estimates about US$200 billion is held in foreign-exchange swaps, with another US$100 billion in deposits at foreign banks. That's enough to substantially shift funding markets, according to Pozsar.

The Bank of Russia's U.S. dollar exposure is about 50 per cent, compared with the 20 per cent it reports, Credit Suisse estimates.

The US has vowed to inflict a "severe cost on the Russian economy" that will hamper its ability to do business in foreign currencies, as Western nation warn that Kyiv could fall. Ukraine's foreign minister said the capital was hit with "horrific" rocket strikes as Russian tanks, troops and aircraft pushed closer to the city.

Equities slumped along with bond yields this week as Russia prepared for and then carried out the assault on its neighbour. Risk sentiment revived late Thursday in the US after sanctions from the Biden administration spared Russian oil exports and avoided blocking access to the Swift global payment network. Asian equities advanced on Friday, while Treasuries were little changed.

Russia's multi-year push to remove the dollar's hold over its economy has so far helped ease the impact of sanctions from the US and its allies, though Pozsar wrote in his note that the offshore currency holdings he outlined could be vulnerable. US"$300 billion - in the extreme -can either be potentially trapped by sanctions, or moved somehow from West to East to avoid being trapped by sanctions," he wrote. BLOOMBERG