The Games must go on - at what cost?

OCTOBER 1964, Tokyo Olympics: Singapore's hockey wizard Douglas Nonis scores a crucial goal in Malaysia's 3-1 defeat of Canada, and ecstatically raises his stick to the familiar faces on the crowded stands of the Kamazawa Hockey Field as his teammates rush to embrace him.

July 2021, Tokyo Olympics: Singapore's only Olympic gold medallist Joseph Schooling qualifies for the 100 metres butterfly swimming semi-finals and flashes a smile as he walks past the near-empty stands to the changing room.

Fifty-seven years ago, the Japanese capital was abuzz with exuberance and enthusiasm when the country scored a first for Asia by staging the major quadrennial event.

Now, with less than a month before the 32nd Olympic Games begin, the event is beset by cost overruns, let down by losses of potential income, and mired in a bog of pandemic rules and regulations for both athletes and spectators. A pall of gloom sweeps the ultra-modern city and sports-mad island country.

The Olympic Games will be staged, after months of uncertainty peppered by protests and set against a wave of rising Covid-19 infections in Tokyo. The sunk costs have been tallied, the biggest chunk in the form of the city's US$15.4 billion Olympic Stadium. The world's elite athletes have started to arrive in Tokyo, and have been whisked off to their quarters quickly and quietly.

And Japan is still counting the costs of carrying on with the Games.

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In the latest setback, foreign spectators have been banned, so an estimated 600,000 visitors will not be allowed to attend. Local spectators are limited to 50 per cent of a venue's capacity, up to a maximum of 10,000 fans.

There could also be a ban on cheering or even speaking loudly in what would be a subdued atmosphere, something which the athletes will dread.

Still, the privilege of participation - and the years spent training - can far outweigh any discussion of costs or disruptions for the 11,000 athletes who will qualify for the Games.

Schooling, 26, who defends his 100m butterfly swimming title, says: "For me, I like to get up in front of a crowd on the big stage, lights on. It helps me put myself in the mode that I need to when I thrive.

"I do feed off the crowd. I feed off the energy, and so having kind of a silent arena, I wouldn't say it puts me at a disadvantage, but it's something I have to adapt to. Although we've had to do things a bit differently, 'different' doesn't mean we can't do other things to get me to the same spot. I want to be in."

But veteran Olympian Nonis, 84, one of four Singaporeans - the others were Anwarul Haque, Kartar Singh and S Vellupillai - selected for the Malaysian hockey team which finished ninth out of 15 teams in 1964, is against the idea of staging the Olympics if Covid-19 continues to exert pressure and spectatorship is reduced drastically.

"What is a Games without sufficient fans? Spectators are the lifeblood of sport. We sportsmen look to them for encouragement, for inspiration. Their cheers motivate us. I enjoyed the enthusiasm and hospitality of the Japanese fans back then."

Counting the costs

When Tokyo won the bid to host the Games, the estimated price tag was US$7.5 billion. By 2019, the budget was US$12.6 billion, and last December the Tokyo Olympics organising committee said that the new tally would be US$15.4 billion, up 22 per cent from the previous year's estimate. Meanwhile, the cost for Covid counter-measures reached US$900 million, and counting.

As a recent Oxford University study states, the cost of the Tokyo Olympics has overrun by 200 per cent, making it the most expensive Summer Games to take place. But then, every Olympics since 1960 had exceeded its budget by an average of 172 per cent.

It was said earlier this year that the Games would provide Japan 1.66 trillion yen (S$20.1 billion) in economic benefits. But an estimated 1.81 trillion yen would go to organisational expenditure that includes spending on extensive Covid-19 test procedures.

The heavy spending comes on the heels of Japan's 5.1 per cent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2021, ending a two-quarter streak of double-digit growth.

College of Holy Cross (Massachusetts) professor Victor Matheson estimates that Tokyo will take a US$3 billion hit due to anti-Covid measures and lose US$1 billion in ticket sales.

Without the tourism dollars from international visitors and spectators, hotels, restaurants and the transportation sector are likely to suffer an economic loss of 151 billion yen, the Nomura Research Institute said.

Nomura has also estimated that cancelling the Olympics and Paralympics would cost Japan 1.81 trillion yen.

The show must go on

Recently, International Olympic Committee vice-president John Coates said the Olympics would be held from July 23 to Aug 8 even if Tokyo is under a state of emergency.

And at this month's G-7 summit in the United Kingdom, US president Joe Biden offered his full endorsement for the Games during sideline talks with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

Dick Pound, an International Olympic Committee (IOC) longtime member, suggested that in the circumstances the best way to stage the Games would be to create "a bubble", with frequent testing and immediate isolation of positive cases. The IOC - which, not the host, has the final say - has given its full backing for the event to proceed as planned.

Venues have been secured and sponsors have mostly renewed their contracts despite the postponement from 2020.

The IOC's top-tier global sponsors are an exclusive list of 14 bold-faced companies including Coca-Cola and Visa. They pay well over US$1 billion every four years to be associated with the Games.

Those agreements tend to span multiple Olympics, whereas 68 domestic sponsors, such as Asahi beer and Asics sneakers, are in it just for the 2021 events. Still, they contribute US$3.3 billion, triple the previous record for the Olympics.

Thus far, vaccination is not a requirement for participants although individual countries have insisted that their athletes be vaccinated. Also the athletes will be limited in movement, but would not be quarantined.

The movement restrictions have frustrated the Australian women's softball team who were the first to arrive in Tokyo, about three weeks ago. The players have daily PCR tests, are confined to three floors of their hotel in Ota City in Gunma prefecture and use one elevator separated from other guests.

They eat in their own dining room, have restricted use of the gym and are not allowed to visit local bars, prompting one player, Tahli Moore, to say: "We're the guinea pigs at this point."

So while there is growing optimism about the Games "go-ahead", there is still some work to be done about athletes' welfare and event schedules.

But there can be no turning back now. For as Tokyo 2020 president Yohiro Mori stated last year, cancelling the Games now could cost two or three times more than staging the event.

He said: "You have already invested in certain things and if the Games are not going to happen it certainly will result in a big amount of waste."

Singapore's badminton player Loh Kean Yew prefers to look ahead. He says: "It would be great if we can have fans cheering us on, especially those from our country, as that tends to hype us up and give us a boost during competitions.

"The pandemic has disrupted our training and competitions schedules in the past year, but we understand why the restrictions are there, as we also have to guard against the spread of the coronavirus. We are grateful for the opportunity to compete at the Games and it will be up to us to adjust, adapt and find the best solutions."

There is also the reasoning that gains will ensue in the future stream, because the Olympics is also a mega two-week-long advertising campaign for the host country. Sponsors have already injected billions, and the unquantifiable worldwide attention given to the city is expected to translate into future tourism dollars.

The Olympics have also been known to create a huge number of jobs, especially during the planning stages and infrastructure building. The Games could turn out to be a huge boon for depressed cities, with mass employment leading to gains in economic output.

Local responses

In a media poll in mid-May, nearly 60 per cent of the respondents want the Games cancelled because the country is still working to curb coronavirus infections. Many also fear the huge costs of funding the event will come out of future taxes.

Latest surveys in June, however, show that public opposition to holding the Games has softened slightly. Still, as the Olympic organisers attempt to appease a sceptical public that the Games will not become a super-spreader event, about 10,000 Olympic volunteers have recently quit.

SS Dhillon, former Singapore National Olympic Council secretary-general who has been to four Olympics, says: "No foreign fans means no fun and atmosphere. Athletes are not in the best shape because of training disruptions. So performances won't be great. And because Japan is not out of the woods with the pandemic, what if athletes, fans and officials get affected? It is best to postpone the Games."

Just 8.7 per cent of Japan's population have been vaccinated, far below levels seen in the rest of G-7 advanced economies, Our World in Data figures showed. The number comes to 45 per cent for the United States and 33.5 per cent in Germany.

Some 80 per cent of athletes qualified for the Tokyo Olympics have already been vaccinated against Covid-19.

The Games will rely on 230 doctors and 300 nurses per day, and the organisers have secured about 80 per cent of the medical staff they need, said Tokyo 2020 president Seiko Hashimoto.

The sheer number of foreigners arriving in the city has also been cut. The number of athletes and Games-related officials visiting Japan has been more than halved from the originally estimated 180,000, and further reductions are being considered, said Mr Suga recently.

With just less than a month before the Tokyo Olympics, the situation is dicey in many aspects. The hosts cannot afford any more false starts off the blocks.

• The writer has covered four Olympics - Los Angeles 1984, Seoul 1988, Barcelona 1992 and Atlanta 1996 - and the Sydney 2000 pre-Olympics.

TEAM SINGAPORE

Singapore athletes who have qualified for the Tokyo Olympics 2021 so far

Badminton: Loh Kean Yew, Yeo Jia Min Diving: Jonathan Chan, Freida Lim Equestrianism: Caroline Chew Fencing: Amita Berthier, Kiria Tikanah Abdul Rahman Gymnastics: Tan Sze En Open water Swimming: Chantal Liew Rowing: Joan Poh Sailing: Kimberly Lim, Cecilia Low, Ryan Lo, Amanda Ng Shooting: Adele Tan Swimming: Joseph Schooling, Quah Zheng Wen Table Tennis: Clarence Chew, Feng Tianwei, Yu Mengyu, Lin Ye