4Q shaping up to be more volatile than 1Q

THE fourth quarter looks like it could be more volatile than the first, with fluctuating oil, Deutsche Bank woes and the US presidential election replacing China's stock market crash, yuan devaluation and the one constant throughout 2016, fluctuating oil.

In 1Q the Straits Times Index started at 2,882, sank to a 52-week low of 2,532 on 21 Jan for a loss of 12 per cent in three weeks before recovering to end at 2,840 on 31 March, bringing its loss for the quarter to 1.45 per cent.

For the fourth quarter, the index's starting level is Friday's close of 2,869. Where it will end is anybody's guess, though one suspects that after years of underperformance, downside must surely be limited, even if 2016's starting mark of 2,882 has proven difficult to surpass on a sustained basis.