ANALYSTS are starting to sound tired as they gaze into the crystal ball for 2015.
Every year for their 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 outlooks, they have been optimistic that this was the year when the global economy would pick up. Each year, they were forced to revise their expectations downwards as data disappointed. For what it's worth, the latest Bloomberg survey of economists has a median 2015 global economic growth forecast of 3.5 per cent, slightly higher than 3.2 per cent this year.
"The logic of forecasting models, one imagines, is that business cycles and growth mean reversion are powerful forces. However, these effects seem to have lost some of their strength," wrote Citibank's chief...