Best Australian dollar forecaster predicts 6% fall by year-end

Sydney

THE best forecaster of the Australian dollar isn't swayed by the recent surge that sent the currency to its best weekly gain since 2011, predicting it will fall back below 70 US cents by the end of the year.

For Konrad Bialas, a foreign exchange strategist in Warsaw at TMS Brokers, the bulk of the Aussie's depreciation is behind it after the currency dropped 20 per cent in the 12 months through September and touched a six-year low of 68.96 US cents on Sept 7. Don't expect a rally though, according to Mr Bialas, who estimates it will end this year at 69 cents, 6 per cent lower than its close in New York on Friday. The currency will recover to 71 US cents in the final quarter of 2016, he predicts.