Dollar ticks up on Iran tension, with US data in focus

[LONDON] The dollar ticked higher on Wednesday (Aug 12), underpinned by renewed Gulf tensions, with markets focused on upcoming US economic data for signals on the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Oil prices edged up after the United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping on Tuesday, with Teheran saying the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington accepts its conditions.

Investors buy the safe-haven dollar when concerns about the economic impact of the energy shock from the Iran war intensify.

Analysts said Friday’s soft US jobs data did not weigh heavily on the greenback as markets expect inflation to drive the next Federal Reserve interest rate move. Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee supported this view on Tuesday by saying he was more concerned about too-high inflation than labour market weakness.

Economists expect data due later in the session to show inflation picked up last month after easing in June, when oil prices fell on hopes of an Iran peace deal.

“A strong showing, particularly in core services or shelter, would likely reverse the recent repricing and result in a sharp bid, given how aggressively hike odds have fallen,” Wee Khoon Chong, macro strategist at BNY, said.

“A soft print or one that is in line with expectations would reinforce the current institutional positioning bias, keeping USD scored holdings low and encouraging continued outflows,” he added.

Fed funds futures imply a 50 per cent chance the central bank will leave rates unchanged at its two-day meeting ending September 16, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.05 per cent at 99.85.

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The single currency was down 0.05 per cent at US$1.1536. It hit US$1.1580 on Monday, its highest in almost two months. Strong eurozone economic figures have struggled to support the euro recently as investors try to assess the impact of higher natural gas prices above 60 euros.

Gas prices have a greater influence on eurozone inflation than oil because of their central role in heating, power generation and industry, making them a key focus for the European Central Bank.

US Treasury yields and the continued removal of Fed tightening bets will be crucial to support the yen, while a September rate hike from the Bank of Japan would underscore the intention to press ahead with policy normalisation. Market pricing points in the same direction, with higher Japanese government bond yields signalling increasing expectations of a BOJ rate hike next month. The yen was 0.05 per cent weaker against the dollar at 159.38, reaching its softest levels of the month despite recent joint intervention by US and Japanese authorities to strengthen the Japanese currency.

“The release of the latest CFTC report at the end of last week did show that that intervention triggered a sharp squeeze of speculative short yen positions,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG.

“If there is no change in fundamentals, speculators will be encouraged to rebuild short yen positions at a time when stable financial market conditions remain supportive for carry trades,” he added. The British pound was also roughly unchanged within striking distance of its one-month high. The New Zealand dollar was 0.36 per cent weaker at US$0.5860 after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Wednesday he had won a confidence vote of ruling party lawmakers, following speculation about his leadership months from a general election. REUTERS