Goldman Sachs delays Fed rate-cut call as Middle East war lifts inflation risks

[WASHINGTON] Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, and now expects quarter-point reductions in September and December, citing rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict.

The US brokerage had previously projected the easing cycle to begin in June, followed by another reduction in September.

Global financial markets have been under pressure as the US-Iran war stoked fears of an oil supply shock, elevated inflation and an uncertain economic outlook.

“By September, we expect both some further labour market softening and progress on underlying inflation to contribute to the case for a cut,” Goldman said in a note on Wednesday, adding that earlier cuts remain possible if the labour market weakens sooner and more substantially than expected.

A weak February jobs report has kept alive concerns over further cooling in the labour market, and slower GDP growth along with rising geopolitical risks could increase the likelihood of earlier rate cuts, Goldman strategists said.

The brokerage added that if the labour market weakens enough to warrant earlier rate cuts, concerns about higher oil prices feeding into inflation or inflation expectations are unlikely to prevent the Fed from easing sooner.

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Traders are currently pricing in about a 41 per cent chance that the US central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in September.

The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting on March 17-18. REUTERS