Thai tycoon's US$17b bid for telecom giants draws sceptics

Bangkok

SARATH Ratanavadi, Thailand's second-richest man, is trying to diversify his empire with a bold bet on digital technology that may cost as much as US$17 billion.

He'll have to do more to convince sceptics that the math adds up.

While shares of his Gulf Energy Development have climbed 7.6 per cent since the company proposed buying control of Thailand's biggest wireless operator and its parent on Monday, some analysts and investors are worried that the cost of added debt won't be worth the payoff. The acquisitions would combine a group spanning power plants, ports and toll roads with telecom companies that specialise in digital services.

Prapas Tonpibulsak, chief investment officer at Talis Asset Management in Bangkok (which doesn't own Gulf Energy shares), said: "Gulf may know how to create the synergy, but some investors still haven't seen this. Gulf's debt will jump substantially."

The Bangkok-based conglomerate, controlled by the 56-year-old Mr Sarath and his family, this week offered to purchase about 81 per cent of Intouch Holdings that it doesn't already own, in a deal amounting to 169 billion baht (US$5.4 billion). Subject to securing at least 50 per cent of Intouch, the group will also tender for 100 per cent of Advanced Info Service, the wireless service. For the latter deal, it will need an additional 365 billion baht. Gulf Energy's net debt almost doubled to 120 billion baht last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Mr Sarath is the latest Asian energy billionaire to invest in technology-linked assets, joining the likes of Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani.

The Thai tycoon founded Gulf Energy in 2011, after working in the industry for more than a decade as a professional. Since listing in 2017, the company has diversified into deep-sea ports and tollways and expanded into Vietnam, Oman and Germany with power projects. Mr Sarath's net worth is US$9.3 billion, going by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

In an April 19 statement sparse on details, Gulf Energy said the acquisitions will generate long-term benefits and cash flows. It also said it will fund the two with internal cash and debt, and that it has already secured about 160 billion baht in loans. Shareholders will meet June 25 to consider the proposals.

Adding Intouch, a holding company with presence in telecommunications, satellites and e-commerce, will enable Gulf Energy ride the digital business with the post-pandemic era set to accelerate automation and work from home, said Smith Banomyong, Gulf Energy's chief of asset management and investment, who discussed the bids on April 19 in Bangkok on behalf of Mr Sarath.

"We have seen a lot of businesses get disrupted by digital transformation, and it will continue to be the order in the future," Mr Smith said.

Suwat Sinsadok, an analyst at Finansia Syrus Securities in Bangkok, shares this optimism. He said power producers one day will be able to directly sell electricity to businesses and retail customers. Advanced Info's 40 million users could be a ready audience, he added.

Mr Sarath "has an aggressive vision to build Gulf Energy as the region's top infrastructure company", Mr Suwat said. "The world in the future is about convergence, platform and big data. Gulf probably envisions that, so it needs platforms and customer base."

Gulf Energy's proposed offer of 122.86 baht apiece for Advanced Info's shares - a 31 per cent discount to its current price - means the bid is unlikely to attract current shareholders, said SCB Securities Co. Advanced Info shares have rallied more than 6 per cent since the offer was made.

The buyout bid also casts uncertainty over the eventual shareholding structure of Advanced Info, Fitch Ratings said April 19. The rating company is likely to place the mobile phone operator's on "watch" should the transaction lead to an eventual buyout, it said.

Talis Asset's Prapas said that while debt is a concern, the dividend yield of 3.9 per cent from Intouch will be sufficient to cover Gulf Energy's additional borrowings to finance the acquisition. Gulf Energy's interest cost for new loans would be no more than 3 per cent, Mr Smith estimated.

His argument for a digital future didn't convince Kaushal Ladha, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand). He said there is a lack of clear synergy between energy and telecommunications, and the cost of raising debt for the acquisition at 2 per cent to 3 per cent, compared to Intouch's dividend yield would mean "marginal value add" for Gulf Energy.

"Gulf's Intouch tender offer is a big surprise," said Mr Ladha, who has cut his rating on the stock hold from buy. "We're very cautious. We need a clear picture of the latest deal." BLOOMBERG