Bond bull market still intact despite rout scare

THE bond rout scare has returned to the market as the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with the 3.00 per cent psychological round number. Many analyst and pundits are calling for the end of the 30-year bond bull market if the 3.00 per cent round number breaks to the upside which is partly the reason why the US equity market is also being negatively affected lately.

However, the exact level that needs to be breached in order to kickstart the bond bear market is the January 2014 high of 3.05 per cent. The recent price action on the 10-year yield has broken above the 3.00 per cent round number but has yet to test the 3.05 per cent level. In other words, the bond bull market is still intact until we get a daily close above the 3.05 per cent level, followed by a weekly and monthly close above that level for further confirmation of a monumental trend shift. Keep in mind bond prices move inversely to bond yields. Hence, a rising yield represents a falling bond price while a falling yield represents a rising bond price.

Based on our study, a few factors are pointing to the 3.05 per cent level remaining intact.