Broker's Take: Sell-down presents good chance to buy Valuetronics, says AmFraser

VALUETRONICS shares tumbled on Wednesday on worries that the company could lose its LED lighting business as a major customer, a Dutch conglomerate, announced its intention to restructure its own lighting business division.

But AmFraser Securities on Thursday bucked the trend of bearish broker reports with its opinion that "the sell-down ... was totally unwarranted".

Regarding the MNC, analyst Renfred Tay said: "The sale of LED light bulbs is not the core revenue generator for this MNC. In fact, Lumileds made up only 5 per cent of (its) lighting revenue in 2013. We therefore do not believe that the decision to spin off the weaker lighting division came just from headwinds in LED sales.

"It also certainly does not mean that (the) lighting (division) will be left out to hang dry. In truth, no one knows what (the) big MNC's plans are and we believe it would be more prudent for investors to assume the status quo than take a wild stab at what might or might not happen, and make worst-case scenario assumptions."

He also refuted views suggesting that Valuetronics will continue to produce for the MNC even when the former's gross margins are halved or turn negative.

"We understand that the culture at Valuetronics is very profitability-centric (such as its earlier exit from the loss-making licensing business). We find it hard to believe that Valuetronics would continue to do business with the big MNC under such onerous terms," he noted.

The one thing that remains a "true area of concern" is the headwinds for the commercial electronics business, but AmFraser believes that Valuetronics' lower contribution mix from this segment (compared to industrial electronics) will result in lower concentration risk.

AmFraser maintained its "buy" call on the stock at a S$0.69 target price.

"Trading at 4.5x FY15 price-to-earnings ratio, this stock looks extremely attractive in our opinion and this sell-down presents a very good chance for investors to buy," Mr Tay added.

As at 11.09am, Valuetronics was up one cent, or 3.2 per cent, at S$0.32.

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