China stocks retreat from decade high as Trump-Xi trade deal yields few surprises
Investors cheer easing US-China tensions but stay cautious, wary a final deal may disappoint
[HONG KONG] Chinese shares pulled back from a decade high on Thursday (Oct 30) as US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a high-stakes meeting in South Korea with a trade-war truce that investors had broadly expected.
Investors appeared heartened by signs of cooling tensions between the world’s top two economies after recent escalations, while also positioning defensively with a sense of deja vu that the real deal may offer far less to celebrate.
Previous trade negotiations have seen promising starts followed by setbacks.
After a near two-hour meeting with Xi, Trump said he had struck a deal to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing resuming US soybean purchases, keeping rare earths exports flowing and cracking down on the illicit trade of fentanyl.
The market reaction was choppy with traders trying to make sense of the information released so far. China’s renminbi retreated from a near one-year high against the US dollar after the meeting.
China’s commerce ministry confirmed that the country and the US have agreed to extend their temporary trade truce for another year as part of an agreement they reached after top economic officials met in Malaysia last week.
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The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index hit its highest level since 2015 at the start of the session but closed down 0.73 per cent, inching away from the 10-year high it has been around this week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.2 per cent.
China’s CSI rare earth Industry Index rose more than 2 per cent, while defensive plays such as liquor and banking pared earlier gains. The AI sector index was down nearly 2 per cent.
“The response from markets has been cautious in contrast to Trump’s enthusiastic characterisation of the meeting with Xi as ‘a 12 out of 10’,” said Besa Deda, chief economist at advisory firm William Buck in Sydney.
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“There are still some structural issues that have been left unresolved, which could be contributing to the market’s response and takes some shine off the truce.”
Bullish momentum at stake
The stakes are particularly high given the breadth of this year’s rally across Chinese markets.
Despite rollercoaster trade headlines, the Shanghai benchmark has surged nearly 20 per cent this year, overturning the “uninvestable” narrative that had dominated global investor sentiment towards Chinese markets in recent years.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has climbed over 30 per cent, ranking it among the best performing markets globally.
“Managing to meet and de-escalate after recent tensions will help remove a major uncertainty, lowering the immediate risks to end the year,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.
Though tariffs have throttled China’s shipments to the US, its exports to other parts of the world have remained resilient, while Beijing’s push to advance artificial intelligence and develop better semiconductors and innovative drugs have also given comfort to global investors this year.
Asian and global emerging markets funds made significant increases in their exposure to mainland China in September, HSBC said in a note on Monday, pointing out positioning in mainland China for Asia funds that HSBC tracks is near a five-year high.
Tactical pause leaves markets choppy
The latest tit-for-tat escalations erupted earlier this month as Trump unveiled additional levies of 100 per cent on China’s US-bound exports by Nov 1, in a reprisal against China curbing its critical rare earth exports.
The meeting on Thursday looked like an attempt to reset the US-China narrative by reopening selective trade channels to restore confidence, rather than a fundamental reset of geopolitical relations, analysts say.
“It’s hard to call this a clean risk-on,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore. “Equity traders have seen this playbook before – upbeat tone, little follow-through.”
There are plenty of gaps still left, though, in the Trump-Xi headlines with no timeline on rare earths, soybeans not a huge win if China’s crushers don’t need imports, and no mention of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, she added.
Partial tariff rollbacks may also do little to help loss-making Chinese exporters and manufacturers, or reverse weak consumer demand at home.
“Overall, this looks like a tactical pause rather than a strategic breakthrough,” said Tareck Horchani, head of prime brokerage dealing at Maybank Securities. REUTERS
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