Europe: Stocks rise after strong US GDP data, ECB holds rates
EUROPEAN stocks rose on a busy day for earnings after the region’s central bank kept interest rates on hold for a third straight meeting and the US economy’s fourth-quarter growth proved stronger than expected.
The Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.3 per cent higher at the close in London. Technology stocks outperformed while automotive shares lagged behind.
The European Central Bank (ECB) left the deposit rate at a record-high 4 per cent – as predicted by all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. President Christine Lagarde’s muted affirmation that the ECB may begin lowering interest rates from around mid-2024 was taken by markets as a sign that earlier moves are very much in play.
“Consumer prices have barely risen in recent months,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “However, the ECB has to keep an eye on wage developments in order not to lower interest rates too early to avoid disappointing the markets over the course of the year.”
ECB president Christine Lagarde said the euro area economy is likely to have stagnated in the final quarter of 2023, but that could damp price pressures.
Meanwhile, data showed the US economy’s fourth-quarter growth trounced forecasts as cooling inflation fuelled consumer spending, capping a surprisingly strong year that defied recession calls. On the other hand, figures showed US weekly jobless claims rose to 214,000 which was above all estimates.
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“We were looking for upside surprise, though not as big as that, to be honest,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “I thought this strong GDP print would scare the market, but clearly not. It seems like signs of weakness in labour market are seen as more important.”
Among individual movers, Givaudan buoyed chemicals while STMicroelectronics dropped as its sales outlook for the current quarter missed estimates. Nokia climbed after a better-than-expected fourth quarter. Publicis Groupe rose as revenue beat expectations and the firm said it will invest 300 million euros (S$436 million) in the next three years in artificial intelligence.
The earnings season is still in its early days, but 73 per cent of the 12 companies on the MSCI Europe Index that reported to Wednesday (Jan 24) have missed earnings-per-share estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. Consensus estimates call for negative earnings-per-share growth of 9.2 per cent versus a year ago, the data show.
European stocks have been mixed in January after a strong rally over the previous two months. Investors are monitoring the earnings season closely while assessing monetary policy as well as the health of the economy.
The current equity rally may last for another six months and presents an opportunity for further returns, Frederic Leroux, head of cross asset at France’s Carmignac Gestion, said at a briefing in Paris. “A bull market is quite probable in the first half,” with stocks benefiting from the likelihood of rate cuts because of disinflation. BLOOMBERG
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