Goldman boosts S&P 500 target by 20% as strategists catch up

[SINGAPORE] Goldman Sachs is the latest firm to boost its year-end price target for the S&P 500, as a relentless rally off the March lows leaves strategist predictions in the dust.

David Kostin raised his forecast for the benchmark US gauge to 3,600 from 3,000, joining the likes of Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni and RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina who've upped their forecasts in recent weeks. The rally has caught many investors by surprise, with the S&P 500 now sitting at 3,372.85 - 51 per cent off its March lows - and threatening to eclipse its February closing record. Mr Kostin cited Goldman's above-consensus US growth expectations keyed off positive news on the vaccine front.

"As the last few months have demonstrated, equity prices depend on not just the expected future stream of earnings but the rate at which those earnings are discounted to present value," Mr Kostin wrote in a note on Friday. "Looking forward, a falling equity risk premium will outweigh a rise in bond yields, and combined with our above-consensus EPS forecast, will lift the S&P 500 Index to 3,600 by year end."

Large stimulus injections have fuelled the climb in the S&P 500 since the March selloff sparked by the pandemic. The gauge briefly surpassed an all-time high last week, helped by better-than-expected economic and earnings data, and optimism about an early roll out of a vaccine.

Mr Kostin said the US election remains a significant risk to his prediction because of challenges in tabulating results in Covid-19 times. Though "the largest risk to our forecast is the timing of a vaccine and path of recovery from the pandemic", he said.

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