Indexes close higher as data keeps Fed rate cut expectations elevated

[NEW YORK] US stocks advanced to close higher on Wednesday (Dec 3), as a flurry of economic data kept expectations elevated for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, while a fall in Microsoft’s shares curbed the advance.

The record-long 43-day US government shutdown kept investors in the dark about official data and hampered the ability to gauge the Fed’s likely path on interest rates. But the backlog is now being cleared along with data from non-governmental sources.

The Institute for Supply Management said US services activity was little changed in November at 52.6 versus 52.4 in October while the prices paid component dipped but remained elevated. The reading comes ahead of the delayed personal consumption expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on Friday.

Separately, the ADP National Employment Report showed US private payrolls unexpectedly declined in November. With official employment reports for October and November due only after the central bank’s policy announcement, market participants have placed more weight than usual on private-sector data.

“For market participants, at least, the Federal Reserve will have ammo to lay off the hawkish tone that we saw a couple of weeks ago and perhaps lean more dovish into what looks to be disappointing and weakening labour data as we get this kind of real-time restart of the data cadence that we are used to,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments in Atlanta.

“That’s something that the markets are obviously receiving really well today, and we will see as the onslaught of data continues if it will continue with this tone, and the markets will continue to receive it in the same way.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 408.44 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 47,882.90, the S&P 500 gained 20.35 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 6,849.72 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 40.42 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 23,454.09.

Microsoft fell as much as 3 per cent after a report said the tech giant has cut AI software sales quotas after many sales staff missed their targets in the fiscal year that ended in June.

But shares bounced off session lows to decline by as little as 1.2 per cent after CNBC said Microsoft denied the report, which helped pull the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into positive territory. Microsoft closed down 2.5 per cent.

SEE ALSO

Wall Street opens lower as investors assess data, Microsoft falls

The tech sector finished 0.4 per cent lower, one of two S&P 500 sectors in the red. Energy, up 1.8 per cent, was the best performing sector, lifted in part by a rise in oil prices.

Traders’ expectations for a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting inched up to 89 per cent after the data, up from around 87 per cent earlier in the day, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Investors weighed a report that US President Donald Trump’s administration has abruptly cancelled interviews with finalists for the Fed chair role. This fuelled expectations that Kevin Hassett, seen as likely to favour aggressive interest rate cuts, will replace Jerome Powell next May.

Rate cut expectations have also lifted small caps recently, with the Russell 2000 index gaining nearly 2 per cent on the session, following last week’s 5.5 per cent surge, its strongest weekly performance in more than a year.

“We expect small caps to outperform in 2026, with earnings to drive returns,” said Jill Carey Hall, equity and quant strategist at BofA Securities, adding that Fed rate cuts and a strong capex cycle would be strong drivers.

Marvell Technology jumped 7.9 per cent after the chipmaker said it will buy semiconductor startup Celestial AI in a deal worth US$3.25 billion.

Microchip Technology rallied 12.2 per cent after the chipmaker raised its expectations for third-quarter results. American Eagle Outfitters surged 15.1 per cent after raising its annual comparable sales forecast, betting on strong demand during the holiday season.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.88-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.73-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 27 new 52-week highs and two new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 108 new highs and 96 new lows.

Volume on US exchanges was 15.44 billion shares, compared with the 18.19 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. REUTERS