Strategist who called 2023 rally sees S&P 500 at 5,200 next year

ONE of Wall Street’s biggest bulls estimates that the S&P 500 will hit 5,200 points next year to set a fresh record.

Oppenheimer Asset Management chief strategist John Stoltzfus, who correctly forecast this year’s rally, joins Fundstrat’s Tom Lee to hold among the most favourable outlook for 2024. Their target implies nearly 13 per cent of gains from last Friday’s (Dec 8) close and will see the S&P 500 move more than 8 per cent above the current all-time high.

“We look for 2024 to be a year of transition as markets navigate what we expect will be the Fed’s pivot from a restrictive monetary policy setting to an easier stance,” the strategist wrote in a note on Monday.

Though Stoltzfus’ prediction that the S&P 500 would surge in 2023 turned out to be right, his forecast for the index hitting 4,400 points falls behind the benchmark’s current level.

For 2024, he expects more gains and recommends that investors stick with this year’s winners such as cyclical shares and technology stocks, even though he foresees the rally to broaden. The company’s 2024 target is based on expectations of 9 per cent earnings growth and a price-to-earnings ratio multiple of around 21.7, in line with the current valuation level. 

Stoltzfus’ prediction for big gains in 2024 follows ultra bullish forecast from Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, who sees the S&P 500 hitting 5,400 points by the end of next year, and 6,000 by 2025.

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A resilient consumer and job market, as well as slowing inflation and more dovish central bank rhetoric, are spurring expectations that the US economy will make a soft landing next year. Bond markets are currently pricing Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as early as the first half, something Stoltzfus sees as “too rosy”.

“We believe the Fed wants to avoid pushing the economy into a recession,” Stoltzfus wrote. “Our expectations are for the Fed to wait to cut its benchmark rate until at least the second half of next year and perhaps as late as the fourth quarter should inflation prove stickier.” BLOOMBERG