Chevron's upstream strength lifts first-quarter earnings past estimate

[HOUSTON] Chevron exceeded Wall Street estimates for its first-quarter earnings on Friday (May 1), as elevated oil prices linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran helped boost results from its upstream business.

The company reported adjusted earnings of US$1.41 per share, well above the consensus estimate of US$0.95, according to data compiled by LSEG. Despite the strong beat, overall profit marked its lowest level in five years, partly due to unfavourable timing effects tied to financial derivatives.

Chevron’s upstream segment, its largest business unit, generated US$3.9 billion in earnings, up 4 per cent year on year as higher oil prices led to increased revenue.

“Despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions, Chevron delivered solid first-quarter performance, underscoring the resilience of our portfolio and the value of disciplined execution,” CEO Mike Wirth said in a statement.

The conflict with Iran, which began on Feb 28, significantly disrupted global energy markets. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearly halted, tightening supply and pushing oil prices up as much as 50 per cent during the reported quarter.

Net income for the January-March period totaled US$2.2 billion, down from US$3.5 billion a year earlier. However, Chevron’s exposure to the Middle East turmoil remains limited, accounting for less than 5 per cent of its total production.

Downstream results in the red

In contrast, downstream operations swung to a loss of US$817 million, from a profit of US$325 million last year. This decline was largely due to accounting mismatches from derivative-related timing effects, which are expected to start reversing in the next quarter.

Larger rival Exxon also disclosed a similar hit from timing effects.

Chevron anticipates that paper positions worth about US$1 billion will close and result in profit in the second quarter, chief financial officer Eimear Bonner said in an interview.

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Excluding timing effects that are typical in a volatile environment, she said Chevron’s underlying business was strong.

“We can see cash flow growing, we can see earnings growing, and all our plans are on track.”

Limited Middle East exposure

Chevron has lower production exposure to the Middle East compared with its peers. Production in the US remained robust, exceeding two million barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter, the company said.

First-quarter volumes declined slightly to 3.86 million barrels of oil equivalent per day compared with the previous three months due to downtime at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan after a fire.

Free cash flow also swung to a negative US$1.5 billion due to lower operating cash flow. On an adjusted basis excluding impacts to working capital, the metric was still down from the year-ago quarter.

Bonner reaffirmed the company’s target of achieving at least 10 per cent annual growth in adjusted free cash flow through 2030.

During the quarter, Chevron paid US$3.5 billion in dividends and repurchased US$2.5 billion worth of shares. The buyback figure was lower than the previous quarter, though Bonner said the company continues to target full-year buybacks between US$10 billion to US$20 billion.

The company said that capital expenditure in the first three months of 2026 was higher than last year, partly due to investments tied to its Hess acquisition, although this was offset by reduced spending in the Permian Basin.

Downtime could hit Q2 output

However, the company said on Friday that planned turnarounds and downtime would reduce its upstream production by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter.

The company added that the disruptions were expected to weigh on downstream earnings, lowering results by US$275 million to US$325 million. REUTERS