Commercial aircraft fleet to grow 3.3% annually over the next decade: report
Chong Xin Wei
THE global commercial aircraft fleet is set to grow 3.3 per cent annually over the next decade to 42,000 from 30,900, Alton Aviaton Consultancy has said in a new report.
Despite expecting growth, the advisory firm projected that fleet growth rate could be slower than the growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), given growing demand for aircraft with higher seat capacities.
The report, released on Sunday (Jun 18), also noted that the narrow-body jet segment would drive fleet growth for the next decade due to strong demand for Boeing’s 737 Max and Airbus’ A320neo aircraft.
Currently, narrow-body jets – also known as single-aisle aircraft – make up 59 per cent of the total fleet. Alton expects their market share to increase to 69 per cent in 2033, at a compound annual growth rate of 4.9 per cent.
Alton also estimates that the wide-body jet segment will grow more modestly, at 1.8 per cent annually over the next decade, driven by demand for Boeing’s 787 and Airbus’ A350 aircraft.
The study also found that aircraft production rate has been increasing more slowly. This comes amid a shortage of skilled labour and parts, manufacturing delays and quality issues.
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As a result, the supply chain of airframe original manufacturers has not been able to ramp up as quickly as the rise in aircraft demand post-pandemic.
Given the long wait times for new aircraft, airlines are placing orders to secure production slots, the authors noted.
Both A320neo and 737 Max narrow-body types have backlogs of under six years’ worth of production; 787 and A350 wide-body types have backlogs of five years of production.
Amid the rise in travel demand and strong aircraft order backlogs, Alton believes Airbus and Boeing could place near-term focus on operational improvements to increase production rates and profitability of current programmes.
Alton observed that much of the recovery in 2022 and 2023 was brought about by leisure demand, fuelled by a wave of “revenge travel” driven by accumulated savings and pent-up interest in travel over the past three years.
But the advisory firm said recovery was not felt equally across all airlines because of supply-side constraints and a lag in the easing of border restrictions.
Business travel demand has also not recovered as quickly as leisure travel, given that companies and workers are adapting to hybrid or remote work, cutting their corporate travel budgets.
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