Dollar heads for best week since February as hawks linger

THE greenback is set for its biggest weekly gain in nearly five months as bullish traders offered respite for a currency that has been battered so far in July. 

A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar’s strength advanced more than 1 per cent in the five-day stretch ending Friday (Jul 21) as the greenback clawed its way back from the 15-month lows it touched amid last week’s selling frenzy. 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is now down roughly 1.4 per cent for the month. 

The partial recovery in the greenback comes as traders eye a packed slate of central bank meetings next week.

The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank convenes on Thursday and the Bank of Japan Friday.

“The narrative has shifted back in the dollar’s favour, at least for now,” wrote Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 

“What’s noteworthy is that the relative story has changed from both sides. Developments in the eurozone, UK, and Japan have called the hawkish central bank outlooks there into question even as strong data here in the US support the hawkish Fed outlook.”

With a rate increase from the Fed all but assured – at least according to pricing in the swaps markets – investors are turning their focus to any guidance on whether the central bank has reached the peak of its tightening cycle or if more hiking could be in store. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped over one basis point to 3.84 per cent on Friday.   

In Japan, meanwhile, persistent uncertainty over the fate of the BOJ’s yield curve control program has weighed on the yen. 

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A report overnight suggesting Japan’s central bank is unlikely to alter its yield curve control program drove yen selling Friday, in turn providing a boost to the dollar. 

The Japanese yen was the worst performer among G-10 currencies, falling 1.2 per cent to bump up against the 142 per dollar level, while commodity currencies also came under pressure.

Whether the greenback can extend its winning streak after the onslaught of monetary policy decisions is unclear. 

“The implications for the US dollar from a ‘hawkish’ hike could be significant as indicated by the FX performance around peaks of past Fed tightening cycles,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 FX research and strategy at Credit Agricole.

“Indeed, the US dollar rallied before but sold off after the Fed peak in the past.” BLOOMBERG