Economics data may quicken stroll into 2020

AS 2019 comes to a close, market activity is likely to remain tepid, with traders still making their return from their holiday breaks.

That said, liquidity in the region's markets will likely pick up towards the end of the week, with the new year ushered in this Wednesday. The market will watch out for key macroeconomic figures that are due at the start of a month.

While there has been a lack of fresh leads, market watchers have said the confirmation of a US-China "Phase One" trade deal and clarity on Brexit should continue to support equities to close the year out positively.

In Singapore, the Straits Times Index (STI) was mostly flat before a late light bump to finish last Friday's session at 3,226.53, up 3.54 points or 0.1 per cent. On the week, the blue-chip index gained 14.14 points or 0.4 per cent from Dec 20's close of 3,212.39.

Here, data releases for the week will be led by preliminary fourth quarter and full year gross domestic product (GDP) estimates on Thursday.

With industrial production (IP) in Singapore recording a sharpest fall since December 2015, by way of a 9.3 per cent year-on-year (yoy) decline in November, UOB senior economist Alvin Liew noted that it could put some "downside risk to our full-year GDP growth outlook of 0.5 per cent in 2019".

Analysts noted that indicators of where Singapore's full-year GDP might end at, could be revealed during Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's New Year message on Tuesday.

Thursday sees the release of Q4 2019 private home prices data from The Urban Redevelopment Authority.

As part of the slew of early month Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) releases, Singapore's official manufacturing PMI for December is due on Friday.

"While November IP was disappointing, global recession risk has lowered of late, thanks to Asia's recovering tech sector. I will be looking at Singapore's PMI survey this week for signs of economic stabilisation," a trader told The Business Times.

In China, official manufacturing and services PMIs will be out on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which focuses more on small-and medium-sized firms in China, is due on Thursday.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, IHS Markit manufacturing PMI surveys for many of the region's economies such as Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand will also be released on the same day.

IHS Markit's chief business economist Chris Williamson said Thursday's manufacturing PMI readings will provide "updated insight into whether world economic growth momentum has continued to build heading into 2020".

Among other economic data prints, South Korea will release November IP data on Monday, which UOB's Mr Liew expects, will increase 0.4 per cent yoy from a 2.5 per cent yoy decline recorded in October.

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