Asia’s LNG buyers hunker down for Middle East war lasting months

[SINGAPORE] Asian buyers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are preparing for the war in the Middle East to disrupt deliveries for months, as a prolonged outage at the world’s largest export plant threatens tighter supply and higher prices.

Companies in Thailand are looking to buy LNG cargoes for delivery till May, according to traders with knowledge of the matter.

Bangladesh bought shipments for April, and is considering procuring fuel for May onward as well, the traders said. Major buyers in Taiwan and South Korea are also preparing to buy more supply for those two months, they said.

The moves demonstrate that Asia’s importers are not relying on a swift resolution to the war with Iran, and that the outage in Qatar, which supplies 20 per cent of the world’s LNG, is expected to be prolonged.

The longer the plant is shuttered, the worse the supply shock as there is no alternative route to export the fuel, nor spare capacity elsewhere to cover the lost output.

Spot LNG prices in Asia are trading at about US$18 per million British thermal units, according to traders. Although prices have pulled back from a peak of about US$25 last week, they are still 80 per cent higher than before the conflict began.

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Qatar shut the Ras Laffan export facility last week after an Iranian drone strike, upending the market and sending the price of gas in Europe and Asia soaring. A number of companies, including Shell, have declared force majeure on their shipments of Qatari LNG to customers in Asia.

At least nine LNG shipments bound for Europe have rerouted to Asia since the fighting began, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, after Asian buyers offered higher rates for the shipments than their rivals in Europe.

India, which sources about half its LNG from Qatar, has been scrambling to procure alternative shipments for immediate delivery, traders said. Gail India was able to book an LNG cargo for March on Tuesday after a few failed attempts, while others are still looking, they said. BLOOMBERG