Australia heading for third bumper crop on record plantings
AUSTRALIAN farmers are poised for a potential "hat trick" when it comes to pulling off another bumper crop this season, with winter plantings set to reach a record, according to a Rabobank Group report.
The planted area is forecast to reach an all-time high of 23.8 million hectares, with growers especially optimistic about prospects for canola -- where seeding is up more than 20 per cent on last year. Wheat sowing is expected to climb 1.4 per cent.
With farmers ramping up planting efforts across the nation, favourable seasonal conditions are bolstering the production outlook, with Australia set for another "above-average" grain harvest -- the third in a row, the bank said.
While another bumper harvest from Australia won't hit global markets for many months yet, the prospect of more supplies should offer some relief to a world bereft of wheat, after the war in Ukraine slashed exports from the Black Sea. Extreme weather across other major producing regions has only deepened shortage fears, with Chicago futures up nearly 50 per cent since the start of the year.
Expectations for Australia's export programme are strong. Rabobank put estimates for 2022-23 wheat shipments at 26 million tons, with a "strong export performance into South-east Asia" on the cards, senior commodities analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon said in the note.
Still, it's too early to tell if the expansion in planting will lead to another year of record production, agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski said.
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"We have been conservative" in our output estimates, he said. "We're mindful of the slow planting progress in New South Wales and the corresponding decline in yield potential with late planting, as well as overly-wet growing conditions."
Output estimates for the 2022-23 season include:
Wheat 32.5m tons, down 10 per cent on last year
Barley 11m tons, down 18 per cent
Canola 5.8m tons, down 9 per cent
BLOOMBERG
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