Gold sets 50th daily record this year on rate-cut bets and geopolitical risk
Gold has risen 70% this year, driven by strong central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed ETFs
[LONDON] Gold rose to an all-time high on Tuesday (Dec 23) – the 50th day it’s broken records this year – as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions and the prospects for more US rate cuts. Silver also advanced to a record.
Bullion pushed beyond US$4,480 an ounce for the first time, after gaining 2.4 per cent in the previous session – its biggest one-day advance in more than a month. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will lower the cost of borrowing again next year, creating a lower interest-rate environment that would benefit non-yielding precious metals.
Gold’s haven appeal has been amplified in the last week by rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, where the US has blockaded oil tankers as it ratchets up pressure on the government of President Nicolás Maduro.
Gold has gained 70 per cent this year in a scorching rally underpinned by elevated central-bank purchases and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. The metal is on track for its best annual performance since 1979. Total holdings in gold-backed ETFs have risen every month this year except May, according to data from the World Gold Council.
US President Donald Trump’s aggressive moves to reshape global trade – as well as his threats to the Fed’s independence – added fuel to the bull run earlier this year. Investors have also played a hugely important role, spurred in part by the so-called debasement trade – a retreat from sovereign bonds and the currencies they are denominated in over fears their value will erode over time due to ballooning debt levels.
Bullion has bounced back quickly after a retreat from its previous peak of US$4,381 in October, when the rally was seen as crowded and overheated, and is now positioned to carry these gains into next year.
Goldman Sachs Group is among several banks to predict prices will keep rising in 2026, issuing a base-case scenario of US$4,900 an ounce with risks to the upside.
Silver also set another record, rising as much as 1 per cent to US$69.7060. The white metal’s rally of around 140 per cent this year has been even more spectacular than gold’s, with its most recent advance buoyed by speculative inflows and lingering supply dislocations across major trading hubs following a historic short squeeze in October.
The total trading volume for silver futures in Shanghai spiked earlier this month to levels near those seen during the crunch a couple of months ago.
Spot gold rose 0.8 per cent to US$4,479.25 an ounce as of 9:20 am in Singapore. Silver gained 0.5 per cent to US$69.39. Platinum rose 0.7 per cent and palladium was up 0.2 per cent, while the Bloomberg US dollar Spot Index was down 0.1 per cent. BLOOMBERG
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