Lockdown, labour shortage, put palm oil output at risk

A RESURGENCE of Covid-19 infections in No 2 palm oil grower Malaysia is set to exacerbate a labour shortage and curb production of the world's most-consumed cooking oil.

The country, which announced that it will extend the first phase of its national lockdown to the end of June, has shuttered non-essential industries and is expected to prolong a freeze on the recruitment of foreign workers as it battles with a third wave of the pandemic.

"The crux of the issue is the labour shortage. We have lost about 20 to 30 per cent of our potential production because of this," said Nageeb Wahab, CEO of the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a growers' group that represents 40 per cent of palm plantations by area. "That would have gone up more this year especially among smallholders," he said in an interview. That means Malaysian palm oil planters may now miss estimates for yields to rebound in the second half, which were made due to the annual seasonal high cycle that typically begins in July, and the initial assumption that restrictions on workers' intake would have been eased. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board last week reported that January-May production is about 6 per cent smaller than a year ago.

Lower-than-expected supplies from Malaysia are supporting benchmark palm oil futures, which rebounded as much as 2.2 per cent on Tuesday after tumbling to their weakest level in more than four months a day earlier. Over 70 per cent of the plantation workforce are migrant workers and the country produces about 26 per cent of the world's palm oil.

"There is good chance that production disappoints as the government is not allowing foreign workers to come in," and is unlikely to do so when Covid cases are high, according to Ivy Ng, head of research at CGS-CIMB. Despite nearing the peak cropping months, labour constraints will prevent a big jump in yields and keep Malaysian production below 19 million tonnes this year, Mr Nageeb said, lower than the 19.14 million tonnes in 2020. The shortage of oil palm harvesters, which was around 40,000 before the pandemic hit, has probably doubled by now, he said.

While the government initially allowed the sector to bring in 32,000 workers, "that has taken a backseat in view of the recent spike" in cases, he said.

Losses in revenue will also be "much, much higher". Planters, who were already losing about RM1 billion (S$322 million) a month last year because of the shortage, may now be missing out on at least RM1.2-1.5 billion per month as palm oil prices are higher on year and labour is even tighter.

In contrast, top grower Indonesia is set to churn out a record crop this year as favourable rains boost yields, according to PT Astra Agro Lestari, the country's biggest-listed planter. Production may climb by 2 million tonnes to reach 53.6 million tonnes in 2021, with output of fresh fruit bunches rising gradually to a peak in the months of September through November. BLOOMBERG