Oil pares gain near US$104 to end another volatile week

New York

OIL on Friday (Mar 18) pared gains after the biggest daily surge in 16 months pushed prices back above US$100 a barrel.

Futures in New York were trading near US$104 a barrel after jumping 8.4 per cent on Thursday. Crude has whipsawed this week on conflicting news about progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The International Energy Agency said on Friday that prices could move significantly higher in the coming months, adding that the oil markets are in an emergency that could get worse.

A renewed Covid-19 outbreak in China has also compounded the moves, as the country has imposed some its biggest virus-related restrictions since early 2020. President Xi Jinping pledged to reduce the economic impact of his Covid-fighting measures, signalling a shift in a longstanding strategy that has minimised fatalities but weighed heavily on the world's second-largest economy.

West Texas Intermediate has swung by more than US$16 a barrel this week, the latest volatile fluctuation. Brent has moved by more than US$5 in each of the last 16 sessions - a record run. Both benchmarks are headed for a weekly loss.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fanned inflation, providing a challenge to central banks and governments as they seek to encourage economic growth after the pandemic. The Federal Reserve this week raised interest rates and signalled further hikes to tackle the fastest price gains in 4 decades.

The IEA earlier this week said Russia's oil output could slump by about a quarter next month, inflicting the biggest supply shock in decades as buyers shun the nation's exports.

"Should the IEA's warnings prove to be prescient, there is little standing in the way of a hefty supply deficit in the coming months," said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

Russian crude is still being treated with extreme caution by buyers worried about damage to their reputation or falling foul of sanctions. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the lion's share of oil refining companies across Europe have said they will scale back purchases from Moscow.

One of the most volatile corners of the oil market has been diesel, partly because Russia is a major exporter to the rest of Europe. Open interest - the number of contracts outstanding in Europe's main diesel contract - has fallen by more than half from its high last year, as traders flee the volatility. BLOOMBERG

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