Oil rises above US$71 as traders assess rising demand, Iran talks

[SINGAPORE] Oil gained above US$71 a barrel as the roll-out of coronavirus vaccines underpins an improved demand outlook in the US and Europe.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced 0.4 per cent, after rallying by 1.9 per cent last week to hit the highest level since October 2018. Americans are becoming increasingly comfortable meeting friends, going back to workplaces, and attending large-scale events, according to a CBS News survey, as US daily air travelers topped two million for the first time since the pandemic began.

The US benchmark is on course for a fifth quarterly advance, which would be the best run since 2010, as consumption improves while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ease supply curbs only gradually.

Global oil demand will recover to pre-pandemic levels late next year, the International Energy Agency predicted last week, urging Opec and its partners to keep markets balanced by tapping their plentiful spare production capacity.

Crude has digested a lot of incremental, bullish news over the past week, with the US and Europe reopening, according to Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. Prices could creep higher over the coming weeks but "at a more gradual pace," with the market awaiting fresh momentum, Ms Hari said.

Traders are also tracking talks in Vienna this week between Iran and world powers to revive a nuclear accord, potentially allowing US sanctions on the nation's crude exports to be lifted.

Iran's deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has cast doubt on the chances of reviving the pact before citizens elect a new president on June 18.

Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline cleric widely tipped to replace President Hassan Rouhani, said that he'll continue the negotiations if elected, but he won't treat them as a major national concern.

Traders remain optimistic about the scope for further gains, according to weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Money managers have boosted their WTI bets to the most bullish in about three years.

In another positive indicator, Brent's prompt timespread was 60 US cents a barrel in backwardation on Monday, a positive pattern in which near-term prices trade above those further out. That's up from 38 US cents a week ago.

BLOOMBERG