Oil slides 2% to 12-week low on fears of global recession
OIL prices slid about 2 per cent to a 12-week low in volatile trade on Wednesday, extending the prior session’s heavy losses as investors grew more worried energy demand would take a hit in a potential global recession.
Looking ahead, analysts polled by Reuters forecast US crude inventories fell about 1.0 million barrels last week. A drop in crude stockpiles could support prices.
The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, will issue its inventory report at 4.30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports at 11.00 am EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday. Both reports were delayed one day by the US July Fourth holiday.
Brent futures for September delivery fell US$2.08, or 2.0 per cent, to settle at US$100.69 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.0 per cent, to settle at US$98.53. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest since April 11, in technically oversold territory for a second straight day.
US diesel futures also fell over 5 per cent.
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Trade was volatile, with both crude benchmarks up over US$2 a barrel early on supply concerns and down over US$4 a barrel at session lows.
Crude futures have been extremely volatile for months. On Tuesday, WTI slid 8 per cent while Brent tumbled 9 per cent, a US$10.73 drop that was the third biggest for the contract since it started trading in 1988. Its biggest drop was US$16.84 in March.
Analysts at investment banks Goldman Sachs and UBS said oil prices dropped due to recession fears.
UBS cited numerous reasons, including “the unwinding of the oil trade as inflation hedge, a stronger US dollar, hedge funds reacting to negative oil price momentum, producer hedging, and new mobility restriction concerns in China.”
With the US Federal Reserve expected to keep raising interest rates, open interest CL-TOT in WTI futures fell last week to its lowest since May 2016 as investors cut back on risky assets.
“There are undeniably concerns about recessionary demand destruction, plus, WTI open interest at multi-year lows has created a bit of a liquidity crunch,” said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho.
The head of the International Monetary Fund said the outlook for the global economy had “darkened significantly” since April and she could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks.
US job openings fell less than expected in May, pointing to a still-tight labour market that could keep Federal Reserve policy aggressive as tries to bring high inflation down to its 2 per cent target.
Oil prices were also slammed by a soaring US dollar, which hit a near 20-year high against a basket of currencies, making oil more expensive for buyers using those other currencies.
In China, the world’s biggest oil importer, the market worried that new Covid-19 lockdowns could cut demand.
China’s crude oil imports from Russia in May soared 55 per cent from a year earlier to a record level. Russia displaced Saudi Arabia as top supplier, with refiners grabbing discounted supplies as Western countries sanctioned Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.
Further pressuring oil prices, Equinor ASA said all oil and gas fields affected by a strike in Norway’s petroleum sector were expected to be back in full operation within a couple of days. REUTERS
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