Opec+ likely to stick with plan for steady quotas, delegates say

KEY Opec+ members are likely to stick with a plan to hold crude production quotas steady for next month when they meet this weekend, according to two delegates.

Nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — having nominally completed the reversal of supply cuts made in 2023 — will probably ratify their existing roadmap to keep targets unchanged in November, the delegates said. They asked not to be identified discussing internal matters ahead of a video conference on Sunday (Oct 4).

Opec’s secretariat in Vienna and the Saudi energy ministry didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

While oil flows from the Middle East disrupted by the Iran war are showing signs of rebounding, millions of barrels of regional production remain shuttered. That’s rendered a series of target hikes agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies since the start of the conflict as largely symbolic.

The sequence of increases has allowed the group to formally unwind cutbacks made in 2023 — albeit, only on paper. 

Delegates have said that the group has a roadmap to refrain from restarting another layer of production, halted in 2022, until at least the end of the year.

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Restarting this would in any case be complicated, as many Opec+ countries would struggle to return to earlier output levels, having seen their capacity deteriorate in the intervening years due to a combination of under-investment, sanctions and other outages.

Their policy for 2027 also hinges on the outcome of a review of members’ production capacity, due to be completed this week and reviewed by oil ministers when they hold a formal meeting on Nov 29. BLOOMBERG