Russia sees China buying gas at discount to Europe through 2029
Russia has been ramping up supplies to China for several years via the Power of Siberia gas link
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RUSSIA’S government expects to sell natural gas for several years to China at about a third less than the price paid by Europe, underscoring how a pivot to Asia has not fully offset the loss of most of the country’s Western markets.
The price of Russian gas for China is set to average US$258.80 per 1,000 cubic metres this year, more than 38 per cent lower than the average price offered to the few remaining buyers in Europe, said two sources familiar with governmental forecasts.
The gap will slowly shrink over the next three years, but still be just over 27 per cent in 2029, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the plans are not public.
The press service for the Russian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The price gap between east and west shows how China, even though it’s now Moscow’s single largest gas customer, is proving to be less lucrative than its former trading relationship with Europe.
Most commercial ties were severed after Moscow invaded Ukraine in early 2022 and just a handful of European countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and Turkey, are still receiving pipeline supplies from Russia. Russia’s government and state-run Gazprom traditionally include Turkey in the European region.
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Last year, Russia sold its natural gas to China at an average price of US$248.7 per US$1,000 cubic metres, also more than 38 per cent lower than the average price for Europe, according to governmental data.
Prices for China are “objectively lower” than for Europe because gas fields feeding Asia are closer to the customer, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said last year, according to Interfax.
China volumes
Russia has been ramping up supplies to China for several years via the Power of Siberia gas link. The pipeline reached its design capacity of 38 billion cubic metres in 2025, and the actual gas deliveries via the conduit were slightly higher, according to Gazprom.
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In 2029, Russia’s annual eastbound gas flows are expected to grow to 52.5 billion cubic metres, the sources said. The increase is likely to be achieved thanks to additional deals between Gazprom and China National Petroleum, including the expansion of the existing pipeline and a new Far Eastern route.
In contrast, Russia expects its pipeline gas deliveries to Europe to shrink to 32 billion cubic metres a year in 2028 to 2029, compared to 36 billion cubic metres this year and 38 billion cubic metres next year, according to the sources familiar with the forecast. Before the invasion, Gazprom supplied as much as 200 billion cubic metres a year to dozens of its western clients. BLOOMBERG
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